Tomorrow afternoon, the women’s basketball team will take on No. 1 Amherst in what is undoubtedly their biggest game of the season to date. A win would all but lockup the NESCAC regular season title and home field advantage throughout the conference championship. But a loss could drop the Jumbos to as low as third, leaving them squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble and facing a far tougher first-round conference opponent, the likes of Connecticut College, Wesleyan, or even Colby.
Unfortunately for Tufts, a win won’t be easy to come by against arguably the nation’s best team. Riding a 39-game winning streak, the Lord Jeffs lead the nation with a scoring margin of 31.8 points per game. They do it with the country’s 10th-best scoring offense, 2nd-best scoring defense and 5th-best rebounding margin. They also block the 3rd-most shots per game and have a dangerous combination of inside and outside talent.
The Jumbos are no slouches themselves, and have risen to the top of the NESCAC on the back of Div. 3’s third best defense. They are a scrappy group of quick defenders, and their ability to force turnovers while allowing fewer than any team in the country has them in the Top 15 in turnover margin.
But in the Jumbos’ ugly 62-41 loss to Rhode Island College on Monday, just their second since Nov. 20, we saw a less attractive side of the team. Tufts shot 23.2 percent from the field, including 1-of-18 from beyond the arc. They missed everything from jumpers to uncontested layups, and trailed by as much as 25. Their offense has been a concern all season, and it finally caught up to them this week.
So what can the Jumbos do to turn the tide and pull the upset in front of a rocking Cousens Gymnasium? Three things:
1. Don’t lose the game in the post
It is no secret that the Jumbos aren’t a big team. With the exception of freshman Hayley Kanner off the bench, no one on the squad is above 5-foot-11. Rhode Island College’s Rachel Riley had a field day in the post on Monday, finishing with 15 points and nine rebounds. Amherst senior Lem Atanga McCormick (11.3 points, 5.7 rebounds per game) and freshman super-sub Megan Robertson (11.1 points, 7.5 rebounds) are likely chomping at the bit for a chance at Tufts.
Jumbos coach Carla Berube may need to give Kanner added minutes on defense, even if she can be an offensive liability at times. Her team will also need to crash the boards hard and all at once to neutralize the height advantage. Senior Tiffany Kornegay is already an expert in that area—she sits third in the NESCAC in rebounds per game—but it will take more than one player to win the battle on the boards.
2. Live, don’t die, by the three-ball
Tufts is extremely adept at running a transition offense, allowing them to use their top-ranked defense to generate points. But Amherst is just as good at avoiding giveaways as the Jumbos, so the game will likely come down to being able to run a half-court offense, a prospect that doesn’t suit Tufts well.
When forced into it, the Jumbos tend to favor passes and screens on the outside until they find themselves a comfortable open shot. Unfortunately, they aren’t as strong shooting from the perimeter as they have been in recent years. In fact, they are just sixth in the NESCAC in three-point percentage, and only freshman Hannah Foley is in the top 15 in the conference. In order to pull the upset, they are likely going to need to have a big day from distance.
3. No Freebies
The Lord Jeffs get to the line more often than any other team in the NESCAC. They do it by a combination of their tough post play and their deadly slashing senior guard, Caroline Stedman. Meanwhile, Tufts gets to the line just a fraction of the time Amherst does, and shoots a paltry 66.7 percent when there. To have a chance tomorrow, the Jumbos will need to mitigate Amherst’s advantage in this area.
This will all start by slowing down Stedman. Luckily for Tufts, they can counter with Kornegay, one of the league’s most athletic guards. If anyone can keep Stedman, from driving the lane, it will be Kornegay.
On the offensive side, the Jumbos need to avoid settling for jump shots and instead drive the lane, ratchet up the fouls and earn some free points in the process. And of course, if Tufts does manage to take a small lead into the final minutes, they are going to need to shoot better than 67 percent to ice the game.